Day 4 of Royal Ascot brings another classy Friday card, with two Group 1 contests taking centre stage. The Commonwealth Cup gives the three year old sprinters their moment over six furlongs, while the Coronation Stakes is one of the week’s big races for the three year old fillies over a mile. Add in the Albany Stakes, King Edward VII Stakes and the usual fiercely competitive Royal Ascot handicaps, and it’s another day where class, pace and a bit of RHR digging could make all the difference.
RHR LONG SHOT: VALENTINA BELLA – 25/1
Twenty five two year old fillies will line up in a race where the vast majority have had one career start, some have never set foot on a racecourse and not a single runner in the field has raced more than twice in their life. That makes the Albany one of the hardest puzzles of the week because there is simply no form book deep enough to separate them with any real confidence and anyone who tells you they know the winner of this race is guessing with better vocabulary. Nobody prepares two year olds for Royal Ascot better than Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore and the history of that stable at this meeting with juvenile fillies is extraordinary with winners rolling off the Ballydoyle production line year after year. We respect that record enormously and it would be no surprise whatsoever to see the O’Brien runner win this but at close to odds on where most horses are complete unknowns we cannot justify making that our pick when the value simply is not there. What we can do instead is follow the jockey and Silent Beauty has David Egan in the saddle, the man who won this very race on Daahyeh for Roger Varian and who knows exactly what it takes to navigate a big field of unexposed juvenile fillies up the Ascot straight and get to the line first. Egan has been riding well all week and the fact that he has Albany-winning form on his CV separates him from almost every other jockey in the race. This is one to enjoy rather than go heavy on because the information simply does not exist to make a confident call but if you are having a play then a jockey who has done it before at a fair price is as good an angle as any.
Valentina Bella brings the French connection with Christophe Soumillon aboard at twenty five to one and when a jockey of that calibre crosses the channel for a juvenile filly sprint at Royal Ascot the booking alone says the filly has shown something at home that the market has not yet seen.
RHR LONG SHOT: CHARLES DARWIN – 12/1
This is the pick we feel strongest about today. Venetian Sun has not lost a race over six furlongs in her life. She won the Albany at this meeting twelve months ago making her a course winner over the exact distance she faces on today. She then won the Group 2 Duchess of Cambridge at Newmarket at 2/5 before travelling to Deauville and winning the Group 1 Prix Morny, the most prestigious juvenile sprint in Europe. Connections made a team decision to step her up to a mile for the 1000 Guineas in May and her stamina was found wanting but the moment she dropped back to six furlongs in the Sandy Lane at Haydock she scorched three lengths clear of Division who reopposed today, with Brussels a well beaten fourth that day having previously finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint behind Cy Fair. That Sandy Lane form is the single strongest piece of evidence in this race because Venetian Sun did not just beat these horses she demolished them and Clifford Lee barely moved a muscle on her back doing it. Karl Burke won this race with Quiet Reflection and he has had Venetian Sun aimed at this moment since the day she came back from the Guineas. She handles good to firm ground, she has won at this track at this distance at Group level, she has proven Group 1 form over the trip and she has already beaten two of her rivals in this field with something in hand. The ground suits, the track suits, the distance suits and the form says she is the best six furlong three year old in training.
Charles Darwin won the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at this meeting last year making him a course and distance winner at Group level over this exact six furlongs. He is by No Nay Never the most prolific sire of Royal Ascot winners in the last decade and while his most recent run was below par the Norfolk form tells you he has operated at a high level on this track before. At 12/1 in a twenty two runner Group 1 sprint a horse with proven Ascot form from the most successful Royal Ascot sire in modern history represents genuine each way value and if his Norfolk performance is closer to his true level than his last run then the market has underestimated him significantly and so has Ryan Moore because he chose Albert Einstein, lets see.
RHR LONG SHOT: FRENCH DUKE – 14/1
Nineteen runners will tackle a mile and four furlongs on the round course in a staying handicap that last year’s favourite Ethical Diamond won for Willie Mullins and this year Plage de Havre arrives with a profile that fits this race like a glove. Andrew Balding’s five year old won the Old Newton Cup at Haydock last July in a field of fourteen where he beat Paddy The Squire who had improved twenty pounds that season and put the rest of them to the sword on good ground in a race whose form worked out exceptionally with the fifth home Stressfree going on to finish fourth in the Ebor and fifth in the Newbury Autumn Cup and the November Handicap. That Old Newton Cup and the Duke of Edinburgh are historically linked races with six of the last nineteen Old Newton Cup winners having used this exact Ascot contest as a stepping stone and Balding himself has won the Old Newton Cup twice in the last five years which tells you he knows the profile of horse that thrives in these staying handicaps. Plage de Havre has had two runs this season to sharpen him up for today and that is a trainer preparing a horse with one target in mind rather than running him into the ground chasing lesser prizes. Oisin Murphy takes the ride on a horse whose stamina over the trip is proven, whose form on good ground is proven and whose trainer has been pointing him at this race since the day the Old Newton Cup form started stacking up behind him.
French Duke has Jamie Spencer aboard and there is no jockey in the weighing room better suited to a 1m 4f handicap on the round course at Ascot than a man whose entire riding style is built around patience and timing. Spencer sits and waits where other jockeys panic, he conserves energy on the home turn where lesser riders burn it and he delivers his challenge in the final furlong when tired horses around him are crying for the line. At 14/1 we believe he could provide some value in another big field.
The story of this race is the story of a jockey who got it wrong and will not get it wrong again. Precise won the Fillies’ Mile and the Moyglare Stud Stakes as a two year old and arrived at the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket as the 4/5 favourite with Ryan Moore aboard and the racing world at her feet. A temperature two months earlier had disrupted her preparation and she finished seventh as her stablemate True Love swept past them all under Wayne Lordan to win the first Classic of the season. Moore looked at the result and did what any jockey would do. He switched to the winner. He got off Precise and got on True Love for the Irish 1000 Guineas three weeks later at the Curragh where True Love was sent off 4/6 favourite and everything appeared to be going to plan as she hit the front inside the final two furlongs with Ryan sitting motionless on the rail. Then Precise arrived. Racing widest of all under Lordan from the rear of the field she unleashed a burst of acceleration and swept past True Love to win by two and a half lengths in a performance that left the Curragh grandstand stunned and left Moore cursing the decision that had cost him a Classic. Aidan O’Brien said afterwards that she had stepped forward enormously and that Roger Quinlan who rides her every morning had told him before the race that she was a different filly to the one who went to Newmarket. O’Brien went further. He called her unique and said she was as good as any filly he has ever had and from a man who has trained dozens of Classic winners across four decades that is not a statement made lightly. She is by Starspangledbanner out of a Galileo mare whose family traces back to the brilliant Sonic Lady who won this very Classic forty years ago and whose pedigree is stacked with stamina which is why O’Brien’s wife Annemarie flagged her as an Oaks filly before the ink was dry on the Irish Guineas result. Moore has now switched back. He will not make the same mistake twice. Four of the last ten Coronation winners came through the Irish 1000 Guineas and three of those four won it. Precise won it by two and a half lengths with her ears pricked. The bookies no not believe this horse loses and we totally agree.
RHR LONG SHOT: MIXED FEELINGS – 22/1
Bintaziza is trained by Roger Varian whose yard won the Duke of Cambridge earlier this week with Blue Bolt proving that the stable is in peak form at this meeting and sending out their horses ready to perform at Royal Ascot. She is by Study Of Man who won the Prix du Jockey Club, the French Derby, and whose own sire was Deep Impact, the most celebrated stallion in the history of Japanese racing whose influence is now reaching into the biggest handicaps in Britain through horses exactly like this filly. Bintaziza won her first two career starts at Newcastle and Wolverhampton comfortably landing the odds at 1/8 on the second occasion and what makes the Thirsk run so interesting is that it was her first ever start on turf and her first ever run in a handicap and she still finished just a third of a length off third place having raced wide throughout with no cover. Horses who show that kind of ability on all weather surfaces and then transfer it to turf often take a significant step forward when they encounter better ground and a fairer track and good to firm at Ascot on a straight mile could be the stage where she finally shows what she has been doing on the training grounds that the racecourse has only hinted at. Ray Dawson takes the ride having partnered Rahiebb in the Gold Cup and his own words before the meeting tell you everything about where he is mentally when he said this is probably the first year he has come to Royal Ascot with genuine live chances. A Varian filly bred to stay a mile with a jockey hungry for a Royal Ascot winner on a surface that should unlock the improvement the all weather form has been promising.
Mixed Feelings won her maiden at Leopardstown over a mile in April and arrives here with Dylan Browne McMonagle in the saddle, the reigning Irish champion jockey who won the Epsom Oaks earlier this month and has ridden with ice cold confidence throughout this meeting for Joseph O’Brien. McMonagle’s hold up style and his ability to deliver a filly from the rear of the field with devastating timing was on show at Epsom and in a thirty runner handicap where the pace will be fierce and the closers will be picking up tired horses in the final furlong that combination of a winning filly and a jockey in the form of his life at a big price is exactly the kind of each way value that makes the Sandringham one of the most interesting betting races on the card.
Only six colts have declared for the race known as the Ascot Derby and in a contest where five of the last seven favourites have won at odds of 13/8 or shorter this is not the race to go searching for value at a big price. Causeway is Aidan O’Brien’s unbeaten three year old who has won all three of his starts this season and whose name evokes the memory of Giant’s Causeway, the Iron Horse who was crowned European Horse of the Year and who became one of the most influential sires in the history of the sport. O’Brien has won this race multiple times including with Japan who went on to land the Juddmonte International and with Changingoftheguard and the King Edward VII has consistently produced future Group 1 stars with Nathaniel, Old Persian and Pyledriver all using this race as the springboard to greater things. In a field where the form tends to hold and the market rarely lies an unbeaten O’Brien colt with three wins from three starts and the trends firmly on his side is the selection. Water To Wine is the main danger having won his two starts by an aggregate fifteen lengths for Godolphin and William Buick but when the favourite has won five of the last seven renewals and the trainer responsible for more Royal Ascot winners than anyone in history sends out a colt who has not tasted defeat this season the case for Causeway is as straightforward as it gets.
RHR LONG SHOT – BLACK STAR BOY – 16/1
The Palace of Holyroodhouse is one of the newest additions to the Royal Ascot programme having been introduced in 2020 and in six runnings it has never been won by the same jockey or the same trainer twice which tells you this is a race that resists patterns and rewards those willing to look beyond the obvious. The last two winners returned at 10/1 and 18/1, Adrestia won it last year for Oisin Murphy at double figures and Karl Burke won it in its second year proving that this five furlong sprint handicap for three year olds is built for outsiders to thrive in the chaos of a twenty eight runner cavalry charge up the Ascot straight. Jazl has Rossa Ryan in the saddle and he knows the Ascot straight as well as anyone in the weighing room and his ability to time a challenge through gaps that close in a heartbeat is exactly the skill that separates the placed horses from the winner in a race. At 14/1 in a contest where double figure winners are the norm rather than the exception he represents the kind of value that makes the closing race worth staying for.
Black Star Boy has Kieran Shoemark aboard and if there is one jockey at this meeting who knows what it feels like to deliver at a massive price on the Ascot straight it is the man who won the Queen Anne on Day 1 at 50/1. Shoemark’s confidence has been visible all week since that moment and at 16/1 and having already pulled off the biggest shock of the meeting riding with that kind of belief is an angle the market cannot quantify.
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