Day 2 at Royal Ascot features the race of the week in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes where last year’s Arc winner Daryz takes on defending champion Ombudsman in a clash between two of the highest rated horses in the world, alongside a 28 runner Queen Mary and the biggest betting race of the entire meeting in the Royal Hunt Cup. We have gone deep into the data, the form, the draw and the ground to bring you a pick in every race with a long shot in some races so you head into Wednesday with the full picture.
RHR Long Shot: Armour Supreme – 28/1
Twenty eight two year old fillies will sprint up the straight five furlongs in the first juvenile contest of Day 2 and this is a race that Karl Burke has made his own in recent years having won two of the last four renewals with Dramatised in 2022 and Leovanni in 2024. Wild Blossom is his latest weapon and she announced herself with a devastating ten length debut victory in the Fillies’ Novice Stakes at Carlisle under James Doyle who said afterwards that she is very speedy and more of a Queen Mary filly than an Albany type. The daughter of Mehmas was a 300,000 guinea purchase at the Craven Breeze Up Sale for Wathnan Racing and what makes this angle so compelling is that Burke used the exact same Carlisle race as a launchpad twelve months ago when Venetian Sun won it before going on to land the Albany at Royal Ascot. The Sporting Life jury were unanimous in flagging Wild Blossom as the standout performer from the trial form with Andrew Asquith calling her something out of the ordinary and John Ingles noting that the runner up Crownbreaker had already set a good standard from her own debut at Newmarket which gives the form genuine substance. Burke said after the race that it was definitely going to be Ascot and that she would not need another run before the Queen Mary. Doyle takes the ride again on a filly who did not come off the bridle at Carlisle and who looks to have a significant amount of improvement still to come.
Armour Supreme runs for Rossa Ryan who won the Arc aboard Bluestocking and the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint on Starlust and at 28/1 in a 28 runner field the jockey booking alone demands a second look in a race where Karl Burke’s own Leovanni won at 22/1 just two years ago and outsiders are never far away.
Eleven three year olds will tackle the mile and six furlongs in a race that Aidan O’Brien has won eight times since 2007 and where staying pedigrees are everything. Wareeth is a son of Sea The Stars, one of the great modern sires, and he bolted up at Salisbury last month under Hollie Doyle having left a disappointing run in the Feilden Stakes well behind him. The form is working out strongly with the second and third from that Salisbury race both winning since and his trainer Archie Watson said afterwards that he stayed the ten furlongs very well, kept galloping away and shaped like he wants at least another couple of furlongs. Watson has five Royal Ascot winners to his name including Bradsell’s Group 1 King’s Stand and he specifically targeted this race as the next step before a potential tilt at the Irish St Leger later in the season. Tom Marquand takes over the ride on a horse who is still learning according to his trainer but whose raw staying ability and progressive profile make him exactly the type this race has been won by year after year.
RHR LONG SHOT: NOCHE CLASICA – 40/1
Blue Bolt arrives here with the strongest form on offer having finished second to the brilliant Fallen Angel in the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes last year and she left that form behind when making a winning reappearance in a Listed race at Goodwood where she had plenty up her sleeve according to the Sporting Life jury who were unanimous in calling her the standout pick. Colin Keane, six times Irish champion jockey, takes the ride on a filly who has clearly been laid out for this race by connections and whose Group 1 placed form gives her an obvious class edge in a Group 2 where the market leaders tend to dominate with eight of the last twelve winners coming from the top three in the betting. She handles good to firm ground, she has proven form at the highest level and at the price she looks the most solid pick..
Noche Clasica has Kevin Stott aboard at a big price in a race where seven of the last twelve winners finished outside the top three last time out which means current form is not essential and at 40/1 in a field of fifteen she represents the kind of each way value that keeps this contest interesting.
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The race of the week and perhaps the race of the entire Royal Ascot meeting as the defending champion Ombudsman takes on last year’s Arc winner Daryz in a clash between two of the highest rated horses in the world. What caught our eye is a piece of data that very few people are leading with. Daryz finished last of six runners behind Ombudsman at the Juddmonte International at York last summer and that was the only occasion in his career where he encountered the word firm in the going description. Ascot is riding Good to Firm this week and that ground question is not a footnote it is the entire story. Ombudsman won that day at York, has since added the Dubai Turf to his record, finished second in both the Eclipse and the Champion Stakes and returns here as the defending champion for the Gosden’s who have won this race six times. On official ratings there is virtually nothing between them with Ombudsman on 128 and Daryz on 127 but the trends say nine of the last ten winners came from the top three in the betting and no French trained horse has won this race since Byword in 2010. William Buick takes the ride on a horse who has already proven he handles this ground and this track and whose consistency at the highest level makes him the our pick in the race.
RHR LONG SHOT: FIFTH COLUMN 12/1
The biggest betting race of the entire Royal Ascot meeting sees thirty runners charge up the straight mile in a heritage handicap where the draw is everything. High draws have been historically favoured with the field splitting into two groups and the side that gets the better pace typically producing the winner while only three of the last ten winners were drawn in single figures. Archivist has James McDonald in the saddle, one of the best jockeys in the world who has ridden multiple Group 1 winners across three continents this season alone, and when a rider of that calibre accepts a mount in a thirty runner heritage handicap at Royal Ascot it tells you the horse has been put in front of him for a reason. Only four favourites have won this race in the last thirty five years which makes it a contest to look beyond the obvious and in a cavalry charge where chaos reigns the jockey booking is the edge that separates the serious contenders from the hopeful ones.
Fifth Column has William Buick and the Gosden and Godolphin combination behind him and was tipped by William Hill’s expert as a Group class horse masquerading as a handicapper with the Suffolk Stakes runner up looking potentially well treated off his current mark.
RHR LONG SHOT: SAND GAZELLE – 18/1
The Kensington Palace Stakes has been won at double figure prices in all five runnings since the race was introduced to the card in 2021 and no jockey or trainer has managed to win it more than once which tells you this is one of the most open and unpredictable contests on the entire programme. Radiant Beauty runs for the Gosdens who are the most successful training operation in Royal Ascot history and Ryan Moore takes the ride having already ridden over forty winners this season at a strike rate of thirty two percent which is the kind of figure that separates the very best from everyone else. This race is run over a mile on the round course where Moore’s ability to navigate the home turn and time his challenge up the hill is arguably the biggest advantage any horse in the field carries. The fact that every previous winner returned at ten to one or bigger tells you the market consistently underestimates runners in this race and at six to one with the best jockey and the most successful training operation behind her Radiant Beauty could well be the shortest priced winner this contest has ever produced or the value bet that finally breaks the pattern of big priced winners for good.
Sand Gazelle has William Buick in the saddle for Godolphin and the Buick and Appleby combination in a fillies’ handicap is always worth a second look at a price especially if the draw falls kindly.
RHR LONG SHOT: ONE NUMBER – 8/1
Controlla is a daughter of Night Of Thunder who ran one of the most impressive debut races of any two year old filly in training this season when pushing the Timeform top rated juvenile filly Victorious all the way to the line in the Group 3 Fillies Sprint Stakes at Naas, beaten just a neck with the pair pulling six lengths clear of the rest of the field. That Timeform rating of 99 on debut is exceptional and marks her out as a filly with a serious future, and At The Races described her as a long striding type who ran on strongly from the rear which suggests the stiff five furlongs up the Ascot straight will suit her down to the ground. David Egan takes the ride on a filly whose Naas form is comfortably the best on offer in a Listed race and the step back from Group 3 company to Listed level means she arrives here effectively dropping in class against less proven rivals.
One Number runs for Dylan Browne McMonagle at a price and in a twenty five runner juvenile sprint where the draw splits the field into two groups and pace is everything he represents each way value if the stall position falls right.
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