NEWS | PREMIUM TIPS | STAKING | RESULTS | PLAY
NEWS | PREMIUM TIPS | STAKING | RESULTS | PLAY
If you’re looking to follow today’s selections, we recommend Star Sports as our trusted bookmaker partner. New customers can get started with their welcome offer — open an account at Star Sports today.
This is a handicap hurdle that has consistently rewarded lightly raced, progressive horses in the five to seven age bracket and when you run this year’s field through that filter two horses emerge at prices the market has been too generous with. Top Jimmy is one of the most interesting profiles in the entire race. The six year old fell at Sandown last time out when well fancied and travelling with every chance, a fall that masked what was shaping up to be a very bold run. Before that he had been building a profile that screams Aintree festival handicapper, progressive, unexposed, effective at two and a half miles, with debut form that has since been franked at Graded level. The Twiston-Davies yard know exactly how to place a horse like this and Sam Twiston-Davies in the saddle is a jockey who understands big field handicap hurdling better than most. At 20/1 the market has allowed the Sandown fall to cloud what remains a very exciting profile.
Swindon Village arrives here on the back of a Cheltenham run that looks considerably worse than it was. Charlie Longsdon’s six year old was pitched into the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle against the best staying novice hurdlers in training and was found out by the grade, which is no disgrace whatsoever. Drop him back into a handicap off a mark of 133, at the right age, on the right weight, and suddenly you have a horse whose profile fits this race like a glove. Jonathan Burke takes the ride and the market has already started to find him, the drift inward in the betting is not a coincidence. Both selections arrive at prices that reflect question marks rather than genuine flaws and in a race where the outright favourite has never won in eleven renewals, the value is firmly at the bigger end of the market.
Top Jimmy is our each way selection at 20/1 and Swindon Village our second each way play at 14/1. This race consistently rewards the progressive and the unexposed and both horses fit that profile precisely while their more fancied rivals carry questions that this race has a habit of answering harshly.
The Mildmay Novices’ Chase has a profile of winner that is almost impossible to argue with and when you place this field against the history of the race one name emerges with real clarity. Paul Nicholls has won this race four times and arrives here with a horse that fits the mould of every previous winner his yard has produced in this contest. Regents Stroll is a seven year old French bred gelding who has been consistent throughout the season, placed at Cheltenham last time out and arriving here fresh enough to produce his best. Harry Cobden takes the ride and when Nicholls and Cobden combine at Grade 1 level at a spring festival you do not need much more convincing. The market has already made its move, the horse has been steaming in the betting and that kind of confidence from connections at this stage of the week is not something to dismiss lightly.
The race has a fascinating market with Gold Dancer carrying the Mullins and Townend combination which commands respect from anyone who has watched jump racing over the past decade. But Gold Dancer has been drifting rather than shortening in the days leading into this race and when the most powerful training operation in the sport is not inspiring market confidence it is a detail worth noting. Regents Stroll by contrast has been finding money consistently and in a race where eleven of the last eleven winners came from the top three in the market, being on the right side of that dynamic matters enormously. Nicholls knows this race, Cobden knows how to deliver at the highest level, and the form trail points directly here.
Regents Stroll is our selection for the Mildmay Novices’ Chase at 10/3. The Nicholls yard has the best record of any trainer in this race and with Cobden in the saddle we know we are getting a great ride for our money.
The RHR team was at Cheltenham last month and we watched this race unfold with our own eyes. Sober Glory made every yard of the running in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, jumped with relentless fluency for two miles, and was still travelling best as the field turned for home. One untidy jump at the final flight cost him the momentum the Cheltenham hill demands and he finished a length and a half back in second. We wrote about it the following week because we could not let it go. A horse that had won six of his seven previous starts, that demolished Listed company by twenty seven lengths at Newbury, and that the market backed with serious conviction on the day does not become a worse horse because of one jump at one flight. We have been waiting for Aintree ever since.
Old Park Star is not declared here and that removes the one lingering question entirely. Six runners, a flat galloping track that suits Sober Glory’s relentless travelling style perfectly, and a Grade 1 that looks written for him. At 1/2 we are not going to insult your intelligence by telling you this is a value bet, it is not and we would never pretend otherwise. But as a banker leg in a double or treble alongside today’s other selections, a horse this dominant at a price this short earns its place on every coupon. This is not about the odds. This is about a horse that deserves his Grade 1 and a track that will give him every chance to claim it.
Sober Glory is our selection for the Top Novices’ Hurdle at 1/2. Back him alone only if the love demands it. Use him in a multiple if the head is in charge. Either way, he runs on Friday and RHR will be watching every jump.
The Melling Chase loses its two time defending champion with Jonbon absent from Friday’s declaration but the horse that dethroned him at Cheltenham last month needs no such gifts. Heart Wood is the reigning Ryanair Chase winner, a Grade 1 champion who beat Jonbon by ten lengths at the Festival just four weeks ago over this exact trip. Henry De Bromhead’s eight year old had been runner up in the Ryanair twelve months earlier behind Fact To File and connections made a deliberate decision this season to ride him more prominently, to let him race with confidence and attack his fences. The result was one of the performances of the entire Festival, winged jumps, travelling powerfully throughout, cruising to the front on the turn for home and pulling clear in a manner that left no doubt about his quality. Darragh O’Keeffe, who rode a masterclass that day, takes the ride again at Aintree and the combination arrives here at the top of their game.
The Melling Chase has been dominated historically by horses coming here off the back of a Cheltenham Festival run and Heart Wood ticks that box more emphatically than any rival in this field. Grey Dawning represents the Skelton yard and will have supporters but his Cheltenham effort left more questions than answers when placed alongside the dominant performance of the favourite. At 6/4 you are backing a horse who has already beaten the best in this division this season, over this exact trip, jumping like a buck and travelling like a dream. De Bromhead trains his horses to peak at the spring festivals and everything about this horse’s season has been building to exactly this kind of performance.
Heart Wood is our selection for the JCB Melling Chase at 6/4. The reigning Ryanair Chase winner arrives at Aintree over the same trip, with the same jockey, and gave every indication at Cheltenham last month that he is operating at the peak of his powers.
Enjoying the Day 2 guide? If you haven’t already got an account with Star Sports, our recommended bookmaker, now is a great time to get set up before the afternoon races get underway – Star Sports
The Topham Handicap Chase is run over the Grand National fences and that single fact changes everything about how you approach it. These are not ordinary obstacles and they have a habit of finding out horses that look well treated on paper but have never had to deal with the unique demands of Aintree’s famous course. Coming Up Easy arrives here as a horse whose last run requires context before any judgement is made. A shuddering jumping error three fences from the finish at Cheltenham in the Paddy Power Gold Cup forced connections to pull him up, a responsible decision that tells you nothing negative about the horse and everything positive about how he is managed. Before that he had won twice on good ground at Limerick and Cork in the spring, exactly the kind of conditions he faces here, and he arrives at Aintree fresh, well, and carrying just 10st 10lbs into a race that consistently rewards lightly weighted horses. Age eight, right trip, right ground, the profile fits and the price is generous for a horse arriving in far better shape than his last run suggests.
Bill Baxter brings something to this race that no amount of ability alone can buy and that is he has already jumped these Grand National fences in competition and knows exactly what they ask. In a field of nearly thirty runners tackling one of the most unique jumping challenges in the sport, that experience is an enormous advantage that the 20/1 price completely ignores. Warren Greatrex’s ten year old carries just 10st 4lbs, one of the lightest weights in the entire field, and Sam Twiston-Davies takes the ride on a horse with course and distance form already on his record. This race has a habit of finding horses the market has underestimated and Bill Baxter fits that description precisely, lightly weighted, course experienced, and available at a double figure price that reflects none of his credentials.
Coming Up Easy is our each way selection at 12/1 and Bill Baxter our second each way play at 20/1. In a race that has punished the market leaders without fail for over a decade, both horses arrive with the profile, the price, and the credentials the history of this race demands.
The form of the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham last month runs straight through this race and it would be remiss not to acknowledge it. Johnnys Jury produced one of the most remarkable performances of the entire Festival, going from last to first in driving rain, picking off every rival one by one up the famous hill to win by a length and a half at 20/1. The tenacity was extraordinary and Jamie Snowden deserves enormous credit for a training performance that landed him back to back victories in this very race. The form is real, the staying power is obvious, and Johnnys Jury will be respected by everyone on the day. But respect and a betting slip are two different things, and at 9/4 in a race that has produced just two winning favourites in eleven renewals, the market is asking you to pay a price that the history of this contest simply does not support.
Dalston Lad is the horse RHR is firmly behind and the reasoning starts with the trainer. Dan Skelton won the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett Prestige Novices’ Hurdle at Haydock with this horse in February, a performance that made it three wins from five over hurdles, and then made a deliberate decision to keep him fresh and point him squarely at this race. Skelton’s own words were unambiguous, the track will really suit him and he has been saved for Friday. When one of the sharpest training minds in Britain tells you a horse has been specifically prepared for a Grade 1 and that the track is made for him, you listen. Harry Skelton takes the ride on a six year old with a course flag already against his name, arriving here at 13/2 in a race where the value historically sits away from the top of the market and firmly with the horse whose trainer has done everything right since February.
Dalston Lad is our selection for the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at 13/2. Johnnys Jury’s Albert Bartlett form commands respect but the price does not and when Dan Skelton tells you a horse has been kept fresh for a specific race on a track that suits him, that is not information to set aside lightly.
The closing race of Ladies Day hands the reins to the conditional jockeys and throws open a race that has a long history of rewarding the patient and punishing the impatient. This is not a race to follow the crowd and it is not a race for the obvious pick. Wandering Ego is the horse RHR is pointing at. Olly Murphy identified him at the start of the season as one of his most exciting novice hurdlers, a horse with natural ability and the profile of something that would improve significantly as the campaign developed. He has done exactly that, building through his races to reach a mark that Murphy’s yard can exploit on good ground at a flat galloping track. His last run at Huntingdon saw him go off as a short priced favourite over two miles, beaten into second place, but that run reads more positively than the bare result suggests, a keen horse asked to race over a sharp two miles is always going to face a sterner examination than one given a slightly longer trip where his natural enthusiasm becomes an asset rather than a liability.
Aintree over two miles and one furlong on good ground is a fundamentally different test to Huntingdon, and everything about Wandering Ego’s profile suggests this step up in conditions will bring out the best in him. Murphy has kept him ticking over through the spring and the distance form flag against his name confirms he has already shown his ability at this kind of trip. At 10/1 this is exactly the kind of horse RHR pick we want to be on, not the obvious selection, not the market mover, but a horse whose ability has been quietly building toward a moment like this all season.
Wandering Ego is our selection for the Debenhams Handicap Hurdle at 10/1. Murphy places his horses with precision and patience and this horse has been building toward exactly this kind of opportunity all season.
All of today’s RHR selections are best followed with Star Sports, our recommended bookmaker partner. Head over and get set up at Star Sports — and whatever happens today, enjoy the racing.
———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–Horse racing involves risk. Bet responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. RHR selections are for informational and entertainment purposes only. Prices correct at time of publishing, always check with your bookmaker before placing any bets. 18+ only. For gambling support visit BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133.
www.rompinghomeracing.com — Viewed Through A Sharper Lens. Built On Intelligence.